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Published On: Thu, Jul 31st, 2014

Japan retail sales fall in a weak second quarter, Japanese PM bids for reflation

Japan’s decline in retail sales challenges Japanese Prime Minister’s effort to attain domestic demand recovery, as companies do not offer higher wages to help household deal with the price hikes and higher taxes.

Japan retail sales fall in a weak second quarter

There was a decline in Japan’s retail sales compared to the June forecast. The quarter ended weak, so Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe bid for economy reflation, and consumers were burdened with higher taxes.

According to Japan’s Trade Ministry data, there was a 0.6 percent drop in retail sales compared to a year earlier. For the second quarter, there was a 7 percent slump compared to the first one. Prime Minister Abe relies on consumers’ ability to shoulder the heavier tax burden, while the Bank of Japan’s record monetary easing is spurring an upward trend for living costs. There is a risk of spending not resuming vigor that would further weaken the economy, which cannot rely on support on part of exports.

As the government and the Bank of Japan hold, the country’s economy is undergoing recovery from the increased sales taxes, albeit it is still too early to assert that. So consumption levels may remain below last year’s level in the third quarter. Abe’s efforts to achieve sustained recovery of domestic demand faces companies’ inability to pass their record piles of cash in the form of higher wages – only then could Japan’s households cope with the current high taxes and price hikes.

The May base pay remained the same as a year earlier, albeit there was a 3.6 percent rise in overall consumer prices in June, conditioned by the 3 percentage point hike in sales levy and due to higher costs of food and energy.

Japan’s Health Ministry’s advisory panel intends to recommend a minimum 10 yen spike in the smallest wage of 764 yen an hour, which equals a 1.3 percent increase. If real income continues to decrease, private consumption will suffer.

The statistics bureau released data indicating a 3 percent tumbling in household spending, compared to a year earlier. Weakening economy in the third quarter would lead to further pressure on Japan’s government for more stimulus to support growth.

On the jobs market front, some indications of strength were observed today. There was a sudden rise in Japan’s unemployment, from 3.5 percent up to 3.7 percent, as a result of more Japanese people looking for jobs, which gave the labor force a boost of additional 120,000 people. There was job offer of 1.1 jobs to everyone seeking employment, which is the highest since 1992.

Japan’s Finance Ministry survey indicated that the majority of companies believed there will be a recovery in retail sales by the end of this month. Japanese Prime Minister Abe has to decide if the economy can cope with a further sales levy increase, in a situation of the Japanese government grappling to curb the highest debt worldwide. The government will make a decision by the end of 2014, on raising the levy to reach 10 percent by October 2015, after April’s spike to 8 percent.

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